Earl Mardle (![[info]](http://p-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} rlmrdl) wrote,@ 2003-05-05 22:03:00 |
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Jared Diamond Looks At How Societies Blow It
The Author of Guns germs and Steelcontinues to ask interesting questions and draws on a fact pointed out by Tim Flannery in The Future Eaters, that it is possible for societies to act in their own, long term worst possible interests, yet not be able to stop themselves.
He identifies what he calls "four somewhat fuzzily delineated categories".
He optimistically suggests that "perhaps if we understand the reasons why groups make bad decisions, we can use that knowledge as a check list to help groups make good decisions".
Now, while options one, two and four are a kind of invincible barrier, the one thing we can do something about is number three and yet, in organisations large and small, from marriages and families to clubs, businesses communities and nations, we regularly find ourselves paralysed by problems that we know exist and yet don't even try to fix. Worth a read. Comments?
The Author of Guns germs and Steelcontinues to ask interesting questions and draws on a fact pointed out by Tim Flannery in The Future Eaters, that it is possible for societies to act in their own, long term worst possible interests, yet not be able to stop themselves.
He identifies what he calls "four somewhat fuzzily delineated categories".
- First of all, a group may fail to anticipate a problem before the problem actually arrives.
- Secondly, when the problem arrives, the group may fail to perceive the problem.
- Then, after they perceive the problem, they may fail even to try to solve the problem.
- Finally, they may try to solve it but may fail in their attempts to do so.
He optimistically suggests that "perhaps if we understand the reasons why groups make bad decisions, we can use that knowledge as a check list to help groups make good decisions".
Now, while options one, two and four are a kind of invincible barrier, the one thing we can do something about is number three and yet, in organisations large and small, from marriages and families to clubs, businesses communities and nations, we regularly find ourselves paralysed by problems that we know exist and yet don't even try to fix. Worth a read. Comments?
