[icon] Paul Crowley
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Subject:MarkCC on the economic crisis
Time:05:34 pm
Hat tip to [info]andrewducker for the pointer to this interesting series of articles explaining how things got so fucked with the economy.
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Time:02:18 pm


This is a Zeiss STARMASTER ZMP star projector - $3M of the most advanced star projector in the world. It reproduces the positions, colours and magnitudes of stars with stunning, unprecedented fidelity, and is so precise that it can project deep sky object images which are only visible with binoculars (yes, binoculars inside the planetarium).



This is an overhead projector.

It seems John McCain can't tell the difference.
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Subject:A history of violence
Time:12:35 pm


Video from source, audio, download
Not quite a transcript (I think it's an essay based on the talk)


I watched this a while back, but the profound influence it's had on the way I think about the whole world has crept up on me. This 20 minute video is Steven Pinker giving a talk at the 2007 TED conference. His thesis is that these are the most peaceful times humanity has ever known, that the overwhelming trend in human history is for violence to go downwards, and that this is true whether you measure on a scale of decades, centuries, or millenia, and whether or not you include warfare.

Of course if you extend the timescale to include evolutionary time it's even more true - the murder rate among our closest cousins, chimpanzees and bonobos, makes South Central LA look like a sleepy hamlet (cf this or this). So I'm trying to be less surprised when people are occasionally a little thoughtless, or selfish, or mean, and a little more astonished that we don't kill each other daily...
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Subject:VP debate exactly as predicted.
Time:11:23 am
Biden - scrupulously refers to "Gov. Palin" throughout, even correcting himself when giving full names of both tickets. Attacks only the top of the ticket. Mostly ignores Palin.

Palin - does not explode, quickly forces every question into one of her pre-rehearsed talking points. Disconnect between what she's asked and what she says sometimes breathtaking, but of course many won't notice.

Right-wing pundits - make "ha ha" noises at her failure to actually explode

Undecided voters - those who express a preference break 2:1 for the Dems.

Glad I didn't actually watch it, really. Though I've watched snippets. Anyone got any snippets they recommend actually watching?
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Subject:Use the try harder, Luke
Time:01:25 pm


Luke: All right, I'll give it a try.
Yoda: No! Try not. Do. Or do not. There is no try.

Luke raises his hand, and slowly, the X-wing begins to rise out of the water - Yoda's eyes widen - but then the ship sinks again.

Mark Hamill: "Um, George..."
George Lucas: "What is it now?"
Mark: "So... according to the script, next I say, 'I can't. It's too big'."
George: "That's right."
Mark: "Shouldn't Luke maybe give it another shot?"
[...]

-- Eliezer Yudkowsky, "Use the try harder, Luke"
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Subject:About the bailout being turned down
Time:10:21 pm
Intrade have had a market open for a few days on whether the bailout would go ahead by 30 Sep, and it's gone no higher than a 25% chance in the last 24 hours.

On the same page you'll find another market for whether we'll get one by 31 October, and that's still at 76%.

So at least some people who knew that this vote wasn't going to pass think there's going to be a bailout but not yet.

Also, scary fact from [info]spyinthehaus: the cost of the bailout is roughly four times the value of all the gold in Fort Knox.
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Subject:Debate is on
Time:04:51 pm
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican John McCain says he's going to be at the first presidential debate, even though Congress doesn't have a bailout deal. With less than 10 hours until the debate was scheduled to start, the McCain campaign announced that the Arizona senator would travel to the University of Mississippi. The campaign said after the forum he will fly back to Washington to continue working on the financial crisis. — AP Top News at 11:40 a.m. EDT
The 90 minute debate starts at 2am BST tonight, and will be broadcast live online on this incredibly annoying MySpace page. I may well stay up to watch, in which case I shall also hang out on irc://irc.netgoth.org.uk/potus if you want to share a virtual beer.
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Subject:Stanislav Petrov day
Time:03:20 pm


Станислав Евграфович Петров
Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov
Saviour of Humanity
born 1939


Chances are, none of us would be alive if it weren't for the bold action - or inaction - of this former Lieutenant Colonel of the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces who single-handedly averted global thermonuclear armageddon twenty-five years ago today.


If you're having a drink tonight, please raise a glass to the man, and wonder what might have been if he hadn't been called in at the last minute to take over another's shift...
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Subject:What will happen tomorrow at 2100 EDT?
Time:03:47 pm
In the latest bizarre twist to afflict this year's Presidential elections, John McCain has called for tomorrow's Presidential debate to be postponed; Obama is refusing. How is this going to turn out?

Poll #1266740 Will the debate go ahead tomorrow?
This poll is closed.
Open to: All, detailed results viewable to: All

Will both Presidential candidates take part in tomorrow's debate?

View Answers

Yes they will
12 (33.3%)

No, they won't
14 (38.9%)

Some third thing will happen
4 (11.1%)

I have no idea, I just like the clicky
6 (16.7%)

If the debate doesn't take place, what will have happened is

View Answers

McCain refuses to debate
30 (83.3%)

Obama refuses to debate
1 (2.8%)

Both candidates refuse to debate
0 (0.0%)

There is no chance the debate won't take place
1 (2.8%)

Something else
2 (5.6%)

Clicky clicky clicky
2 (5.6%)

If the debate goes ahead as planned, ABC will announce that the result of their viewer's poll is

View Answers

A win for McCain
8 (22.9%)

A draw
5 (14.3%)

A win for Obama
13 (37.1%)

Something else
2 (5.7%)

Clicky clicky clicky
7 (20.0%)



Intrade have a market open on this

Update:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican John McCain says he's going to be at the first presidential debate, even though Congress doesn't have a bailout deal. With less than 10 hours until the debate was scheduled to start, the McCain campaign announced that the Arizona senator would travel to the University of Mississippi. The campaign said after the forum he will fly back to Washington to continue working on the financial crisis. — AP Top News at 11:40 a.m. EDT
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Subject:More on Sarah Palin, the rapist's friend
Time:02:14 pm
Previously: While Sarah Palin was mayor of Wasilla, victims of rape in that town were charged $500-$1000 by the city for the costs of their forensic examination. Yes, really.

  • The story has now hit the mainstream. This USA Today story seems to have led the charge.
  • It seems to be pretty much established as fact that it was going on, so the only remaining question is whether she knew about it.
  • It obviously reflects badly on her if she did know about it and did nothing to stop it, and almost as obviously it reflects pretty badly on her if it was going on under her nose in her tiny town and she didn't know about it.
  • Palin's people have responded to the story:
    Palin spokeswoman Maria Comella said in an e-mail that the governor "does not believe, nor has she ever believed, that rape victims should have to pay for an evidence-gathering test."

    "Gov. Palin's position could not be more clear," she said. "To suggest otherwise is a deliberate misrepresentation of her commitment to supporting victims and bringing violent criminals to justice."

    Comella would not answer other questions, including when Palin learned of Wasilla's policy or whether she tried to change it. The campaign cited the governor's record on domestic violence, including increasing funding for shelters.

    In other words, evasion on the central question of the story - did she know about it at the time?
  • Update: Finally another meaty bit of mainstream coverage, from CNN.
    In a statement, Jill Hazelbaker, communications director for Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign, said that "to imply that Gov. Palin is or has ever been an advocate of charging victims for evidence gathering kits is an utter distortion of reality."

    "As her record shows, Gov. Palin is committed to supporting victims and bringing violent criminals to justice," Hazelbaker said. "She does not, nor has she ever believed that rape victims should have to pay for an evidence gathering test."

    Those who fought the policy are unconvinced.

    "It's incomprehensible to me that this could be a rogue police chief and not a policy decision. It lasted too long and it was too high-profile," Croft said.

    Again, the campaign avoids the question.
  • Reporters would probably like to ask her directly, but of course she has not held a press conference since joining the ticket three weeks ago. There's a lot more to say about her avoiding the press but it's a subject for another entry.
  • Weak evidence that she knew is provided here: she signed off on a budget that included charges for these kits.
  • She fired the previous police chief to appoint Fannon, the police chief responsible for this policy. The fired chief claims the policy started with Fannon.
  • The only defender of Palin writing about this I can find doesn't seem to advance any kind of defence at all. (Update: another non-defence, and another)
  • Updated: the National Review has a more serious go.
  • It's sometimes pointed out that health insurance will carry most of the costs of the kits. However
    • The poorest women may not have health insurance, and they deserve justice too
    • Even those with health insurance will have to pay an excess
    • Even if neither of the above were true the charge is wrong in principle - where else are victims expected to pay the cost of evidence gathering?
  • Given Alaska's unusually high rape rate, we might expect that about 30 or so women will have reported rapes in the time between her appointing Fannon as police chief, and the 2000 legislation barring the practice across Alaska which Fannon spoke against. If she didn't know about it, we're expected to believe that of those 30 women who were charged for their kits (and their friends) not one drew this extraordinary injustice to the attention of the mayor. I'm hoping we'll be hearing from some of those 30 women over the coming weeks.
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Subject:Political story, surely too flabbergasting to be real?
Time:11:23 pm
Greta Christina writes in the Blowfish Blog:
I care that, as mayor of Wasilla, Sarah Palin was responsible for a policy in which rape victims had to pay for their own rape kits [ie pay for the costs of their own forensic examination following a rape, which is up to $1000].

(No, I’m not kidding. A policy that not only further victimizes the victims, but ensures that rapists of poor women will get away with it. And a policy, btw, that McCain also supports, with multiple votes in Congress.)

Is this for real? Is there some other side of the story I'm missing?
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Subject:Ah, go on...
Time:12:21 pm
You can make people like you more by doing them a tremendously damaging disservice - encourage them to do what is in their short-term interests but against their long-term interests.
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Subject:oh nose! - Friday 24 October
Time:05:10 pm
I told lots of people this in person but I haven't posted it here yet: I have an appointment on Friday 24th October to get my nose fixed.

This isn't cosmetic, contrary to a very lovely recent email - it's a nasal polypectomy. Compared to many things this is a very minor health complaint, but it's bugging me now and I'm looking forward to the results of the surgery. I was born with unilateral choanal atresia which was fixed with a series of operations from birth to age 3 or so, but my nose has never worked all that well, and I think it's got worse over the years. It took me a while to get a proper diagnosis of what was wrong with it not least because it wasn't quite bothering me enough to want to look into what the options were, but I finally got sick of it in December and got a referral to an ENT specialist from my GP. The ENT person looked up my nose and said "goodness me, what enormous polyps you have up there!", and booked me for a CT scan.

I still don't have the data from the scan to show you, I'm afraid, but Jess came with me to the hospital when I went to discuss the results and the consultant showed the scans to me. I hadn't quite realised what I've been putting up with all these years 'till I saw that scan! It's black where there's air, white where there's bone, and gray for flesh or brains. A normal nose would show gray, then white, then a invisibly thin line of gray where the bone is protected by skin, then black for the airway. My nose is gray, then white, then gray, with a small circle of black in the middle which is what's left of my airway. What do you all do with all that space up there? Once it's all cleared out there will practically be room for a small party actually inside my nose!

So I'm booked in for surgery with Mr Hinton at 1200 on Friday 24 October. I should be under general anaesthetic for an hour or less, during which they will suck at bits of the polyps with a sucky thing and snip them off. I'll then wait in recovery for a few hours (on my own sadly) before Jess takes me home in a taxi, and I'll be taking about a week of work to recover, for some of which I'll have a thingy attached to my head to protect my nose. It'll be uncomfortable for a while, but it's going to be so worth it. I thought to post this now because I'm not having a great nose day right at the moment, and I cannot wait to find out what it's like not to have to put up with this.
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Subject:Bargain at Intrade
Time:03:44 pm
You can buy shares in Sarah Palin being dropped from the GOP ticket at the bargain price of 11.7 as of right now. That means that you can spend $11.7 on such a future, and it will be worth $100 if she's not on the ticket by election day (and $0 otherwise). I reckon it's worth at least twice that, and if I had spare money for gambling I'd buy a few...
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Subject:BiCon!
Time:04:57 pm
I had a fantastic BiCon. I'd been worried that I'd find not having the extra day hard, but I got around that by hardly sleeping :-) Good to meet so many new folk, and I've found three photos of me so far: this during the day, this on Friday and this on Saturday:



Now got day off, re-watching end of West Wing season 2 with [info]spikeylady. Bliss.

Updated to add this lovely Saturday picture from Alison
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Subject:It isn't true
Time:11:00 pm


Damn you, theonion.com. Propogated from [info]jwz. (BTW, can anyone identify the guy in the brown suit second from the left, or the guy in the dark suit on the right?)

PS here in the real world, Obama/Biden 2008.
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Time:07:25 pm
I am filled with a sudden and inexplicable urge to organise a game of three sided football.

It seems to me that it would make a great spectator sport - there would always be a lot of goals because many battles will be two teams against one, and whoever was ahead (had the least goals) would always be under most pressure...
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Subject:Where can I find a cable for one of these?
Time:06:15 pm
We need a cable that goes from a standard UK 3-pin mains socket to the kind of connector shown on the left. I've just received a replacement power unit for our laptops, but they didn't come with the power connector, which is a pain.

Update: Wow, you lot are swift! It is an IEC 320 C5. Have ordered from Amazon - less than £4 including postage. Many thanks all!
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Subject:Did I lend "Theory of Numbers" to anyone?
Time:11:17 am
I can't find my copy of An Introduction to the Theory of Numbers anywhere, and I haven't been able to for some time. Did I lend it to you, and if so can I have it back please? Ta!

Update: also, opinions on books on elliptic curves solicited, for the four or five of you who might have some! See my comment below.
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Subject:Footage of police at Climate Camp 2008
Time:02:52 pm
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kol08/article/default.asp?article_id=46009

Note in particular how hard the police work to get in the way of the cameras. You'd almost think they know that they're behaving in a way that won't survive scrutiny.
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[icon] Paul Crowley
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