Home

Previous Entry | Next Entry

Brad @ Burning Man
[info]kukla_tko42 just mentioned in her journal, the other day, that she couldn't imagine how anybody could support President Bush. Well, you know by now that I don't, either. I do, however, understand how some people can make that mistake. Still, her confusion is perfectly natural. For one thing, people tend to surround themselves with like-minded people. For another, most people naturally avoid confrontation. So even though I strongly suspect she probably has one or two friends reading her journal who were planning on voting for Bush in November, none of them were willing to come forward and explain why when she asked them to.

Tonight, I don't want to talk about specific candidates or specific policy positions, though. You see, there is a seldom-articulated coherent position that underlies the entire modern conservative coalition in America. It's such an obvious principle, to them, that most conservatives don't even think about it. Most of them couldn't explain it, consciously. Their leaders, who could explain it, mostly don't. To about half of them, it's so obvious it's not worth talking about. The others don't want to argue about it. Since the principle is so obvious, they assume that you know it, understand it, and fully agree with it. That's why, when you take stands that are at odds with that principle, they're unwilling to assume you're doing so sincerely and out of the goodness of your heart. You have to be venal, corrupt, or dishonest to take a stand contrary to that principle, because obviously you know better and are only saying what you're saying for some evil purpose.

So let me start with the bare minimum of history, just by way of an example, and then explain what that principle is. Because once you know what it is, you'll find much of the debate, and much of the campaign advertising, and much of the news coverage this election year a lot more comprehensible. Of course, you may also have a smidgen more self-doubt, because you may be driven further into that crippling liberal/moderate paralyzing affliction: being pathologically able to see both sides. (People who only see one side are a lot easier to get fired up, unfortunately.)

The historical precedent for this will come as news to most of you, because it really is forbidden history. Since so much of this is tied up in the religious history of the United States, and since school systems are terrified of parental lawsuits, you never had most of this in school.

In the 1620s, Puritans (the antecedents of modern fundamentalists) had successfully conquered England, overthrowing the monarchy and ruling directly through Parliament - but they weren't happy. There were two flies in their ointment. For one thing, their revolution hadn't been nearly as thorough as they'd hoped. They were hoping for a top-to-bottom pietistic overhaul of English society; they didn't get it. And what's more, while they may not have seen the Restoration coming, they could tell that public opinion was turning against their experiment, and that society was already going back the wrong way. So some of them devised a new experiment. Money was raised to buy a colonial charter, and passage by ship, for tens of thousands of English Puritans. By the time that migration was done, around 1640, these Puritan colonists made up nearly the entire European-descended population of the New World.

What they hoped to demonstrate was that you didn't need the Church to run the State, or vice versa, as long as they both agreed. Their hope was to create a civilization where everybody was a Puritan; every citizen, every voter, every worker, every boss, every politician, every lawyer, every policeman, every judge, every teacher, every minister. Puritan ministers wouldn't have to control the government; the government would naturally agree with them. Puritan governors wouldn't have to appoint and control teachers and ministers; being fellow Puritans, they would naturally agree with the government. By the time the last of them were getting off the boat in 1640, they could already tell that this wasn't going to work. In fact, that's what the Antinomian Crisis of 1640 was about. Some of the last Puritans to arrive from England got to Massachusetts expecting to find the Puritan Experiment still running. When they found that the government was specifically dictating to the churches and to teachers, they rebelled - and were tried for heresy, convicted, and thrown out of Puritan New England for being, yes, too Puritan. So the Puritan Experiment was, realistically speaking, over.

But along the way, the Puritans had discovered one embarrassing truth. Being a Puritan was a great way to get rich. It wasn't supposed to be, it just worked out that way. Puritans were a deeply pleasure-phobic culture, firmly committed to restricting and avoiding pleasure. They were also fully convinced of the redeeming power of gainful employment, and not just any employment, but hard work. And along the way, they found out something that any Greek hoplite of the 4th century BCE could have told them: working hard and not spending any money is how you get rich. What makes this embarrassing to Puritans is that getting rich means that you no longer have to work hard or avoid pleasure. Puritanism contains the seeds of its own destruction. Successful Puritans naturally accumulate the wealth that corrupts them (and especially, corrupts their children) from being successful Puritans. During the Enlightenment a generation later, an ameliorating trend was invented. The cure to having too much wealth is investment. What's supposed to cure you from the tendency to spend your accumulated wealth on frivolous pleasures is the opportunity to turn it into even greater wealth -- harnessing pure greed and envy to the service of greater virtue.

Since then, this is the number one fundamental principle of conservatism. This is the obvious truth that hardly needs to be said in public debate. The method to improve your lot in life, and your family's lot in life, is widely known and well documented. Anything that encourages you to stay in school until you get a good job, get married and never stray, work every waking hour, save every penny, and invest every possible penny into improving your children's lot in life is good. Anything that distracts you from doing those things is bad.

How can conservatives want to destroy every governmental institution that helps the poor, and still consider themselves good Christians? Well, what's the metaphor that we use for those social programs? We call them the "safety net," right? Well, consider this. People take more risks when there's a safety net to catch them if they fall. Conservatism doesn't want you to take risks. Conservatism wants you to follow the known rules for making yourself, and especially more so your children, wealthy and powerful. They want you to be afraid of poverty. Fear of poverty is supposed to be what keeps you on the straight and narrow path.

After all, who actually needs the public, government-funded safety net? When it doesn't exist, many people who have catastrophes happen to them get rescued anyway. They have family, or friends, or employers who value their hard work. Voluntary contributions have a huge advantage over governmental contributions - they only go to the worthy. In an entirely voluntary charity situation, the only people who don't get help are the totally isolated, the totally friendless, and those who are disapproved of by the people they know because of the choices they made. In a conservative world view, such people are meant to be made examples of.

This is so obvious that it doesn't even have to be explained to most people. Most people can easily think of family dramas, where ne'er-do-wells in the family were allowed to sink into poverty because they were so determinedly bent on self-destruction. Well, if somebody's that bent on self-destruction, if somebody's that determined not to stay on the straight-and-narrow, what entitles them to being helped? And what makes you think that helping them is going to actually help them, instead of simply enabling them to continue in their self-destructive ways? What makes you so sure that letting them sink isn't the compassionate thing to do? Shouldn't they be allowed to hit bottom, if that's what it takes to show them the error of their ways? And what makes you think that even if you can help them, that you're not doing even more harm to several other people, by giving them a bad example of somebody who made inappropriate choices and yet did OK?

Comments

[info]dreamking00 wrote:
Apr. 23rd, 2004 11:49 pm (UTC)
Hmm. Very interesting.

I'm not convinced that there's continuity from Puritan culture, but I definitely perceive the so-called Protestant Work Ethic in the modern conservative political situation.

I think the notion of the "safety net" as temptation to sloth is right on--I'm sure we both have heard about lazy welfare moms, dropping kids out of wedlock just to get the childcare stipend, etc.

A few things I'd highlight that also define the Conservative position in this country--
  • Alternative social structures are bad. Whether it be gay marriage to communism, it threatens the Nuclear Family/Work/Invest/College Fund progression you described.
  • What you earn belongs to you. Not every conservative is a Libertarian, but even among those who consider taxes the price of civilization, they pay grudgingly.


Of course, looking at it in this way doesn't make the existence of "Starve the Beast" economics any less infuriating.
[info]bradhicks wrote:
Apr. 24th, 2004 12:17 am (UTC)
This might be an interesting place to point out that my sister was a "welfare mother," and I have some interesting observations to make about that "lazy welfare mom" meme based on my own observations.

First of all, conservatives are absolutely right that there are some women who are so stupid as to think that AFDC pays enough, when combined with other social welfare benefits like WIC, that they can keep a child and themselves fed and housed without a job. Beth found herself pregnant out of wedlock, had the adoption paperwork all filled out, then bonded with the child after birth and couldn't give him up. She rationalized that she didn't have to; she could draw AFDC, etc., and afford an apartment for herself and her son. And although Beth seldom admits it, high on her list of reasons for wanting to do so is that it looked to her at the time like a way to get out of our parents' house, something she couldn't afford to do before.

Second of all, those women quickly find out that they are dead wrong - and that was before welfare reform. Nobody, and I mean nobody, is getting rich off of AFDC. Beth found out the hard way just how little money that was, compared to the minimum costs involved in raising a child. She was back to depending on our folks in almost zero flat. Had she not had comfortably well off working class parents to fall back on, she and her baby would have been homeless, period.

(If you think I'm mixing apples and oranges here, it's because technically, there is no such thing as "welfare" in America any more. They got rid of the program by that name, and Aid to Families with Dependent Children is all that's left of it. When people talk about welfare now, if they have even the slightest idea what they're talking about, what they're really talking about is AFDC.)

AFDC is, thus, a perfect example of where liberals and conservatives are talking past each other. Liberals (like myself) just can not or will not get past the point that there's an actual baby involved. That kid, or even those kids, did not ask to be born. They did not volunteer. They are not starving, homeless, and deprived of a steady education because of their choices. As defenseless and innocent members of society, they are entitled to be protected from the consequences of their mothers' and fathers' bad choices. There is also the fact, obvious only to liberals, that making those children starve in the cold without regular education has negative consequences on the rest of us even though we didn't make the parents' bad choices.

However, conservatives are absolutely inescapably right in saying that offering such protection renders the consequences of those inappropriate choices much less dire, and therefore creates what's known as a "moral hazard," a perceived incentive to do the wrong thing.

I keep saying this: The worst fights in politics do not happen between good and evil. The worst fights in politics happen between one good and another incompatible good.
[info]dreamking00 wrote:
Apr. 24th, 2004 01:23 am (UTC)
Yeah. I hate the moralistic absolutes that conservatives base their politics on, regardless of consequence...

Death penalty: kills innocents, more heavily applied to non-whites, and has never been shown to be a deterrent.
Abortion: best pro-choice sticker I ever saw was a coat hanger with the International "No" symbol over it.

This isn't even touching on the Bush administration, whose motivations, policies, and assertions indicate Dubya has his head so far up his ass he risks collapsing into a naked singularity.
[info]gothkat wrote:
Aug. 2nd, 2004 12:41 pm (UTC)
Dubya has his head so far up his ass, that he needs to consult a proctologist for a psychiatric evaluation.
[info]hick0ry wrote:
Apr. 24th, 2004 07:00 am (UTC)
I'm not sure what I'm missing in your argument regarding maintaining a safety net "for the sake of the children," but it appears that your argument, taken to its logical conclusion, actually calls for the State-sponsored forcible separation of child from indigent parent. After all, what better way could there possible be to protect children from their parents' bad choices?

[info]bradhicks wrote:
Apr. 24th, 2004 09:06 am (UTC)
You say that as if it doesn't happen. Homeless adults have their children taken away from them and dumped into foster care all the time. About the only way for homeless people not to have their children dumped into foster care is to find another relative, one who didn't make those bad choices, to take them in.
[info]hick0ry wrote:
Apr. 24th, 2004 08:18 pm (UTC)
I hadn't actually thought it did, but I see you're right. So, when does the State intervene? When is it right for the State to intervene? Is it only when the parent is homeless? Perhaps when the parent can no longer pay the rent, but hasn't yet been evicted? Not gainfully employed?-- there's a terrible example for a child. I see where this is going, and it wasn't what I'm asking. I want to hear why, given your previous observations, is it wrong for the State to remove a child from a single parent, when it is right for the State to give that parent money with the hope that it will prevent the child from being punished for the parent's errors.
[info]bradhicks wrote:
Apr. 25th, 2004 02:17 pm (UTC)
When does the State intervene? Brian, come on, you know the answer to that one: when some social worker wants to intervene. There's no hard-and-fast rule in such cases for how poor you have to be in order to lose your children. You lose your children when your poverty happens to catch the eye of a social worker who thinks that it's best for the children to put them in foster care, if (and only if) they can get a judge to back them up on it. In other words, it's all case-by-case, good old fallible (but the best we have) human judgement.

What stops it from being 100% absolute policy, what stops conservatives from taking the kids away from ever poor person and farming them out to richer people who'll teach them right, is two or three other things that have little or nothing to do with the point of this article. Not least among them is around 3000 years or more of legal precedent that says that parents' ownership of their kids is the most sacred right there is. But let's face it, how many conservatives do you see out there lining up to adopt poor kids? And conservatives don't want those kids in foster care, anyway - that costs more tax dollars, and there are more liberal social workers and foster care volunteers than there are conservatives.

The history of AFDC, like almost everything in politics, is all about compromises. Usually ugly ones, because when neither side trusts the other side's good faith, ugly compromises are the only kind there are.
dkoleary wrote:
Apr. 25th, 2004 02:28 pm (UTC)
And conservatives - Christian conservatives - in particular are the ones who really push the sacredness of the biological family unit of Mom and kids and Dad if he's available. They BELIEVE in it in a very fundamental way.
[info]woody77 wrote:
Sep. 22nd, 2004 12:39 pm (UTC)
Followed a link from [info]tyrsalvia's journal to here. Well done.

However, I think that 3000yo legal precedent is wearing thin in the last few hundred years.

But, I think the line that should be drawn, and hopefully IS drawn by social workers is that poverty in an of itself is no reason to remove a child from it's parents, but only destructive situations where the parents have been shown to not be able to take care of the kids (ie, drug addict parents that spend the AFDC money on drugs for them and let the kids starve). That's when the intervention should happen. A LOT of people can get by well below the poverty level, especially if they can get out of a city (with it's higher costs of living).
dkoleary wrote:
Apr. 24th, 2004 11:41 am (UTC)
I didn't answer TKO because I don't have an answer. Many of Bush's policies are troubling me at the moment, but I don't think he is the anti-Christ. I am concerned about Iraq, but I think pulling out immediately is a spectacularly bad idea. I haven't seen enough of Kerry to say that I want to vote for him, as opposed to voting against Bush. This election, like the last one, is a hold your nose and vote for the lesser evil election. (Can we nominate someone other than a silver spoon next time? Please?)I mayo vote for Kerry anyway because I believe deeply that splitting the executive branch and the legislative branch between the two parties forces the two sides to compromise and to come to reasonable, moderate decisions. The Republicans definitely need some balance at the moment.
[info]hick0ry wrote:
Apr. 24th, 2004 08:13 pm (UTC)
Find a third party you like more than 50% and go with it. It's the only moral choice. This "chosing between two evils" myth must stop. As long as people like you keep playing along, it will keep happening, and you'll keep voting yourself a serf, or a jackboot imperial invasion force, or whatever. Congrats.
dkoleary wrote:
Apr. 25th, 2004 11:19 am (UTC)
You're wrong. Swing voting is a smart political strategy. Create a hypothetical election: Jones v. Smith. Ordinarily, I hold my nose and vote for Jones because his party is least offensive to me. However, Jones and that party have now pissed me off mightily. I have two choices: 1) vote for my true favorite party and its candidate, John Galt; or 2) vote for Smith and his party. If I vote for Galt, Jones has to get one more vote to make up for the vote that he lost from me. If I vote for Smith, then Jones has to get two more votes to make up for the vote that he lost from me and to make up for the fact that Smith gained a vote when I defected.

Plus, libertarians are never going to be a majority in this country. It's more a religion than a political choice. However, libertarians can push some of their social agenda through the Dems and some of their financial policy through both the Dems and the Republicans. One of Bush's problems is that the Libertarian section of the Republican coalition is pissed over Iraq, the Social Security bill, etc. They're going to defect in droves in November.
[info]hick0ry wrote:
Apr. 25th, 2004 06:21 pm (UTC)
I'm a little shy getting my soapbox out in someone else's space like this, but I'll risk one more comment here: you're missing my point entirely. You are completely correct that if your *only* goal is to not see candidate XYZ elected, the best strategy is to vote for the second runner-up. But my whole point was, although I didn't get into it in detail, because, well, it's not my space to wander off on rants...

A vote for an evil is a vote for evil, period.

When I speak of the two-party myth, I'm referring to the two-party propaganda that a vote for another party is wasted vote. This is a lie. Remember, the Republicans started off as a third party.

In the end, it's just like Dubyah said. You're either part of the solution, or you're part of the problem. And I don't care what your motive is, if you're voting for Evil, you're part of the problem. My opinion is that both major parties are evil, true, and I vote Libertarian, true, and they'll never be a major force because America is full of sheep believing lies, true (um, err, I mean I'm a politico-religious fanatic, right); but I never mentioned the Libertarians, and I don't urge you to vote for them. I only encourage you to vote for a candidate you can believe in (the >50% agreement test) rather than voting for the lesser of two evils.

America sees voter turnout around 30%, which means that ~16% of America controls the result of the electoral process. My informal surveys of voters last election had more than 80% of people who'd tell me unhappy with the candidate they voted for, but another 120% didn't vote at all. The major parties are in power through an amazingly effective propaganda campaign, nothing more.

I'm out of time tonight, but I'll start a rant over in my space early this week if you'd like to continue this discussion ... unless, Brad, you're finding this worthwhile.
dkoleary wrote:
Apr. 26th, 2004 07:20 am (UTC)
Libertarians
I did not know that you vote Libertarian. It was an example; I picked Libertarianism because that is where my heart lies. Big breath... However, I do not believe that the two major parties are "Evil" with a capital "E"; ie. morally wrong or bad. They're "evils" with a little "e"; ie "something that is a cause or source of suffering, injury, or destruction." For me, the choice is between tilting at windmills or trying to influence a majority party enough to get some of my agenda accomplished and limit the "suffering, injury, or destruction" as much as possible RIGHT NOW.
[info]cos wrote:
Sep. 16th, 2004 04:32 pm (UTC)
voting strategically is right
I disagree with the basic notion that I keep hearing from third-party advocates that, if only people stopped voting for the lesser evil and voted their conscience, we'd get better candidates. I say this as someone who volunteered for Nader 2000 - but mainly because Bush fooled me into thinking he wasn't going to be a disaster, so I was conflicted about whether I preferred Bush or Gore win. I'm not at all conflicted this year: I prefer that Kerry win, even though I don't like Kerry. I say this in order to let you know that I'm not a diehard anti-third-party Democrat, or someone particularly enthusiastic about Kerry.

What I advocate is this idea: if you have a preference about the possible outcome of the presidential election, the right thing to do is to vote in whatever way you think will make that outcome more likely, and encourage others to vote that way.

A presidential election is not a general public opinion referendum, where you are expressing a point of view. Nor is it a vote for a proportional parliament. It is a process for selecting a president - exactly one president - for the entire country. Unless there's a majority in the country all behind one fairly narrow political ideology, then this process by definition forces most people to vote for someone they don't fully support, in order to work properly and successfully.

Imagine if we tried to have a presidential election like a european parliamentary election, where each of us voted for a candidate who reflected our views. We'd have at least 7 or 8 candidates, maybe as many as 15 or 20. Each candidate would get a fairly small portion of the vote. They'd be lucky to get even 20%. Who's the winner? Do all the candidates get together and choose one among them? If they do that, then all those people who have supposedly voted for someone who reflects their views have really mostly voted for proxies who will choose someone who doesn't reflect their views after all, and people wouldn't be clear on what exactly they were voting for until well after their vote is cast. A mess. Or do we just give the presidency to the person with the highest total? The winner would be a matter of pure chance, a nearly random selection, based more on how many people were running and how different or similar than they were from each other, than on the general will of the voters. It's the "spoiler effect" you hear about, except that every candidate is a spoiler. They can't form a coalition - one of the basic premises of our constitutional system of government is a stable and unitary executive.

The point of this process is for a majority of us to come to a broad concensus about the one person we can all agree on, as our chief executive. It has to be a compromise for most of us.

Unless, as I said at the beginning, a majority of people in this country happened to actually believe in enough of the same things that they'd all want the same candidate. If there were such a candidate and such a concensus bloc of Americans, sure, it would be wonderful. But no third party candidate currently comes anywhere near that ideal, so it's irrelevant to this year's election.
[info]crownofspoons wrote:
Sep. 24th, 2004 09:51 pm (UTC)
Re: voting strategically is right
I hear what you're saying. However, there is a way to vote one's favorite without losing the coalition/consensus building aspect. Unfortunately, it would require a constitutional amendement. The idea here is intant run-off voting, an idea thet is (to me) so obvious, one wonders why it hasn't been implemented on a large scale already (until one remembers thet the gov't is created an controlled by power, not reason).
[info]cos wrote:
Sep. 25th, 2004 11:51 am (UTC)
Re: voting strategically is right
IRV is a reform I would definitely support, and it does not require a Constitutional amendment. Like most other big changes, it will happen when a well organized movement successfully runs a major issue campaign and makes it happen - this has started in some places, but it's far too fractured.

I tried to suggest to Nader (at a meeting of his that I went to last fall) that instead of running for president, he endorse Dean in the Democratic primary, and work together to implement IRV (which Dean was very supportive of) - but I think in the end, Nader's ego got in the way of any constructive ideas that didn't have him running for President himself this year. *sigh*

This is all an aside for now. We don't have IRV this year. If we had IRV, you could vote your opinion *and* vote strategically, knowing that the strategic vote would be the one that counts. Since we don't have IRV, it's best to dispense with the first step. There are other ways to register your opinion, but this is the only way you have to select a president.
[info]crownofspoons wrote:
Sep. 25th, 2004 12:40 pm (UTC)
Re: voting strategically is right
I don't see it as possible to have IRV without a constitutional ammendment. I suppose a state could implement it as a method for selecting its electors, as long as the winner-take-all-by-state method was maintained. However, I was thinking more in terms of the whole country. After all, an IRV election in a single state could award that state's electoral votes to a candidate who receives no votes anywhere else. At that point, people can no longer vote their first choice first; they must consider what their state and their country are doing. However, if we had such a system for the country as a whole, it could work. However, changing the presidential election system would require an ammendment, which would never be ratified by all the states, since a good portion of them would be losing power in such a system.
[info]cos wrote:
Sep. 25th, 2004 01:02 pm (UTC)
IRV and popular vote are separate reforms
You're talking about two completely different things, and confusing them with each other. They are:
1. Instant Runoff Voting, instead of just voting for one candidate
2. Changing to a straight popular vote for president

Issue #2 is a much bigger and more complex issue, and is far from the no-brainer that IRV is. I, personally, am firmly opposed to changing to a straight national popular vote for electing the president. I think it's a terrible idea.

However, even if we did change to a straight popular vote, that wouldn't change the underlying arguments for voting strategically: We're voting to elect exactly one president. The winner will be the one with the largest block of support. The Democratic and Republican parties have more national support, currently, than anyone else, hence one of them will win - and that is true whether people vote for their favorite, or vote strategically. There is no other candidate who has even close to the level of support that the Democratic and Republican nominees do, so they are the only ones with any chance of winning.

So, whether we have our current electoral college system, or a straight popular vote, if the D or R aren't your favorites, you still should vote strategically, under either system. And if, through hard work and organizing and changing people's minds, over many years, we reach a state where, say, the Green or the Libertarian candidate becomes one of those with enough public support to win, and, let's say, the Democrat becomes one of those without enough support - then supporters of the Democrat should vote strategically.

That's what's been happening in municipal elections in parts of the bay area, for example: in the last San Francisco mayoral election, the two candidates who had enough support to win, were the Democrat and the Green. Pragmatic Republicans voted strategically, for the Democrat, and that gave him a narrow win.

IRV, on the other hand, is an entirely independent reform. You can have IRV in our current system, or in a straight popular vote system. What it lets you do is vote your opinion and vote strategically, if your favorite candidate doesn't have enough support to win. for example, if SF had IRV for their mayoral election (which is a straight popular vote), Republicans could have voted Republican first, Democrat second.
[info]crownofspoons wrote:
Sep. 25th, 2004 06:00 pm (UTC)
Re: IRV and popular vote are separate reforms
I don't think I am confusing IRV with Direct Voting. I just don't understand how we can have IRV under the current system. Or maybe I don't understand what you mean by IRV.

Under the current system, the President and Vice President are elected by electors chosen by each state. Are you suggesting thet their votes be in instant runoff format?

Under the current system, the electors from each state are chosen by the voting public of that state (in most cases, by a winner-take-all popular vote). Are you suggesting that their votes be in instant runoff format?

The first suggested reform would require a constitutional ammendment. The second would not. The first would be weird, because how do they choose who to vote for? The second would be futile, because you still would want your state as a whole to vote strategically, and therefore you would vote strategically yourself.

I agree that a straight popular vote wouldn't obviate strategic voting. In fact, it would probably increase it (in the safe states, at least). However, both reforms done together would, I believe, provide a much more reasonable electoral system than the one we have currently.
[info]cos wrote:
Sep. 16th, 2004 04:34 pm (UTC)
[take a look at the comment I posted below]
[info]athenemiranda wrote:
Nov. 23rd, 2007 03:03 am (UTC)
I hope you don't mind me commenting here, years after you wrote this, but your English history is way off. 1625 was the year of Charles I's ascension, and he saw himself as a divinely chosen Catholic ruler. Direct rule by Parliament was established after the Civil War, in 1649, and ended with the Restoration in 1660. The rest of your theory sounds logical but it's hard to swallow it when it begins with that mis-step. I don't know much about the New England Puritans, but I'd always got the idea that they were fleeing either Catholic rule, the approaching civil war, or both.