coraljune: Where is the political commentary! (I mean, Huckabee?? What the hell is going on?!) Last night I was watching the results, then turned to my friends page confident there'd be a contribution from you to make it all make sense. Then I figured maybe it was just too soon, but I felt sure there'd be something by morning. You want a topic, Mike? Iowa!! There's your freakin' topic.THE DEMOCRATS
I'm not at all surprised by Obama's win. The conventional wisdom was the bigger the turnout, the better he would do. Obama had surprising support among independants and Republicans and seems to have the ability to expand the party.
No matter how you slice this, Clinton is toast. Any result with Obama in first (particularly by a wide margin) would have been a disaster for her. While I agree, to some extent, with
Mickey Kaus' rumination that Clinton might need Edwards to finish at least second to stay in the race, but I still think third, for her, is terrible.
She has a lot of ways to lose the nomination. Her best bet is to try to maintain some of her national lead for Super Tuesday. In order to do so, she needs the anti-Clinton/change vote to be split between Edwards and Obama. This is tricky, though, because Edwards doesn't have a lot of money so unless he gains some momentum quickly, he might be gone.
One-on-one against either Edwards or Clinton, Obama has a major advantage. Against Clinton he is 1) more likable 2) the change candidate 3) the more comfortable politician. Against Edwards, he 1) has substantially more money and 2) a message more able to appeal to broader swathes of the electorate.
Because of the money issue, I'm not sure Edwards has any chance of winning the nomination, and I think Clinton's chances are pretty minimal. New Hampshire is not a good state for her, so she's looking at another probable third place finish. At that point her lead in the national polls is likely to have evaporated.
THE REPUBLICANS
Here is what I
said about Huckabee in October:
The two Republicans who most scare me in a general election, Huckabee and McCain, both are being rejected by their party for the very reasons they strike me as scary (their ability to appeal to moderates and independents and their willingness to try policies not invented by Ronald Reagan).
A few days later I
said about Mike Huckabee in October:
One of the reasons Huckabee makes me nervous is the very reason the Republican establishment is turning on him: he can run as an economic moderate and a social conservative. I think that message has an incredibly broad potential audience, but it probably would shatter the Republican establishment.
I still think all of that is true. Huckabee is a fascinating candidate. I was joking with Heather that after Edwards, he might be the strongest economic populist in the election (including the Democrats). My gut instinct is that his economic policies as governor were substantially to the left of what Bill Clinton did as governor.
Huckabee makes a strange sort of sense: a lot of the hard-core christian footsoldiers of the Republican party were never married to the idea of trickle down economics. They cared a lot more about cultural values and abortion. But a lot of them are anti-poverty.
After he won last night, Huckabee said he felt no need to conceed health care or the environment or the fight against poverty to Democrats as issues. That is a bold and visionary strategy by a Republican.
The funny thing is, as a candidate, Huckabee is the strongest politician they have. He is a great speaker, he is funny, he is smart and he comes off as a nice guy. While he doesn't have a lot of money yet, I suspect he will in the next month or so.
I see Huckabee as, by far, the most dangerous Republican candidate in the general election. That said, I think it would be hard for any Republican to win. And Huckabee does have some weaknesses: he can be batshitfuckinginsane (although he hides it well), and, I think if he wins the Republican nomination he completely fractures the Republican coalition (sadly, that could be just what they need).
OTHER THOUGHTS
1. Rudy Giuliani might be the biggest loser. He got some godaweful number of votes. I know he pulled out, but Ron Paul lapped him three times over. The more the people of Iowa saw of him, the worse he looked.
2. Hillary Clinton is the second biggest loser, but at least, unlike Rudy, she has a chance at coming back.
3. McCain was the happiest 4th place finisher of all time. He has a good shot at winning New Hampshire and making it a two person race with Huckabee. If that happens, the Republican Establishment will probably dig a grave and jump in, just so it can roll over.
4. Romney really seems like the worst major party candidate of my lifetime. I hope he wins the Republican nomination. I'd LOVE to go against him in the general election.