From: tmesser	Date: November 30th, 2005 05:15 am (UTC)		(Permalink)

So DirecTV still accounts for 87% of new TiVo subscriptions? Is it just me, or is that a big problem given that the TiVo/DirecTV relationship is basically over?

	From: zonereyrie	Date: November 30th, 2005 05:30 am (UTC)		(Permalink)

Not really as bit a problem as it sounds, since the revenue per box on DirecTV is about 1/8th the revenue on the standalone boxes - TiVo sees $1.13/month for each DTV box, and $8.86/month for each $12.95 monthly sub box, going by the figures released today. As they stated on the call, this quarter was unusually skewed because DirecTV had a $30 million marketing campaign, including rebates that made the DirecTiVo effectively free. That significantly increased DirecTiVo sales. Also, DirecTV has been having issues with the NDS DVR availability, so they'll continue to ship DirecTiVo for a while as needed.

TiVo is also pushing their international expansion, as seen in today's announcement about Taiwan. TiVo will be the first, and only, DVR offered in Taiwan when it is released there next month. And they will be expanding into other countries in the area. TiVo has also stated they are still eager to expand into the European market, and there should be announcements in the coming months.

Within the US TiVo, of course, has the Comcast partnership which will land in the second half of 2006 and should greatly drive new subscriptions. The partnership with NCTC will also lead to marketing TiVo as the only DVR solution for millions of analog rural cable customers. A lot of these deals have been announced, but haven't landed yet, so we won't see any impact until maybe next quarter.

As TiVo makes more of these deals, and expands overseas, the DirecTV deal has less meaning.